Nightmare scenario vs Dream Scenario

[bigreddog]

Thanks to the strangely addictive BBC predictor I've been looking at the play-off contenders and the teams in and around us that could drag us down the league potentially.

I'm struck by one thing: The nightmare scenario this weekend could see us out of it before we kick a ball against Aldershot. In short this weekend is potentially even bigger than that of the 8th of May. That's partly because many of our rivals are playing each other on the last weekend. But this weekend it could go spectacularly wrong, or fantastically right:

the key fixtures are:

Accrington vs Chesterfield
Aldershot vs Lincoln
Bournemouth vs Port Vale
Bradford vs Northampton
Bury vs Torquay
Daggenham vs Hereford
Rotherham vs Crewe
Shrewsbury vs Morecambe

If the winners of those ties are : Chesterfield, Aldershot, Vale, Cobblers, Bury, Daggers, Rotherham and shrews. That would leave us in 11th place on 67 pts lagging behind daggers and northampton and leaving rotherham, aldershot, bury chesterfield and port vale in the play off places. port vale would be on 70 pts but ten goals better off than us minimum. Or to put it another way: Season Over.

If the results did exactly the opposite it would be the dream scenario. We go 5th on 70pts, behind rotherham and ahead of aldershot and bury. our nearest challengers would be Port Vale and Chesterfield both on 67 points, meaning a point against Aldershot would guarantee the play-offs.

There are plenty of variable between, but no matter what way you look at it, this weekend the players and staff and fans have a massive opportunity to make a claim for that play-off spot. This weekend is not just huge its ginormous. so get down to the new meadow and cheer on those lads. by the aldershot game it could all be too late.

[outsider]

my head hurts now

[shrimper]

Aye, as I said in the (ahem) other predictor thread, if we can avoid defeat on Saturday then unless virtually all the other results go against us (unlikely with some tough-to-call games) then we should still be in with a shout going into the last game.

The permutations are bewildering and I'm sure a lot of people will be working it all out straight after the match.

Others of us will probably just be having another beer or two!

[bigreddog]

absolutely. Is it your round or mine? I lost count on saturday

[Morecambe Player]

I constantly find it amazing how the season pans out when you get teams playing each other at the end of the season in a "Winner takes all" kind of scenario.

This weekend, for example, Crystal Palace play Sheffield Wednesday and that game will decide the fate of both sides, either one of those will stay in the Championship. Meanwhile in League 2, in a bizarre twist of fate, Grimsby actually play Barnet.

I've said to Sean, Dave and Steve on our travels these last few weeks, for me, the dream scenario is both us and Aldershot needing just a point to both guarantee the play offs on May 8th. I suspect it might be reminiscent of Germany v Algeria in the World Cup some years ago!!

I don't think that can happen though now, unless I'm mistaken, although I hope I am. I'm sure some of you predictophiles could draw up that scenario?

[heysham_mfc]

I constantly find it amazing how the season pans out when you get teams playing each other at the end of the season in a "Winner takes all" kind of scenario.

This weekend, for example, Crystal Palace play Sheffield Wednesday and that game will decide the fate of both sides, either one of those will stay in the Championship. Meanwhile in League 2, in a bizarre twist of fate, Grimsby actually play Barnet.

I've said to Sean, Dave and Steve on our travels these last few weeks, for me, the dream scenario is both us and Aldershot needing just a point to both guarantee the play offs on May 8th. I suspect it might be reminiscent of Germany v Algeria in the World Cup some years ago!!

I don't think that can happen though now, unless I'm mistaken, although I hope I am. I'm sure some of you predictophiles could draw up that scenario?

word of the week

[Andy]

Even if we don't make the play offs (this weekend) I'll still make the long trek from Kent for the Aldershot game and applaud everyone for one hell of a season, it would be nice to think that at the end we could make Wembley again but hey WHAT A SEASON.

[Aspers]

i'm excited.

[George Dawes]

we need to avoid defeat on saturday to make the Aldershot all the more exciting plus will have more chance of boosting the gate to full capacity with part-time supporter's


and if we dont make the play-offs the next best thing for us this season would be the news of Barry Roche signing a new contract

[ezz]

Lets get this 'avoid' defeat at shrewsbury out of our heads, as you go out to avoid defeat....defeat is generally what you'll get. Go for the win and maybe at worst we'll only draw!

That's my mentality anyway

[Keith]

...for me, the dream scenario is both us and Aldershot needing just a point to both guarantee the play offs on May 8th. I suspect it might be reminiscent of Germany v Algeria in the World Cup some years ago!!

I don't think that can happen though now, unless I'm mistaken, although I hope I am. I'm sure some of you predictophiles could draw up that scenario?

Aldershot draw with Lincoln (unlikely)
Bournemouth beat Port Vale (possible)
Accrington lose to Chesterfield (not a surprise)
Bury lose to Torquay (not a surprise)
Bradford draw or beat Northampton (perhaps)
Shrewsbury lose to Morecambe (hope so)

That would leave Rotherham guaranteed play off place and Aldershot, Morecambe & Chesterfield on 70 points. Bury on 68 points needing a win from their last game and one of the three on 70 points to lose. If all three drew, Bury would need to win their last game by 4 or 5 goals to go above Chesterfield. If Chesterfield won and we drew, they'd need to win by double figures. So in that scenario we would realistically only need a draw for both us & Aldershot to get a play off spot.

Hope you got all that!

[Christies Child]

...for me, the dream scenario is both us and Aldershot needing just a point to both guarantee the play offs on May 8th. I suspect it might be reminiscent of Germany v Algeria in the World Cup some years ago!!

I don't think that can happen though now, unless I'm mistaken, although I hope I am. I'm sure some of you predictophiles could draw up that scenario?

Aldershot draw with Lincoln (unlikely)
Bournemouth beat Port Vale (possible)
Accrington lose to Chesterfield (not a surprise)
Bury lose to Torquay (not a surprise)
Bradford draw or beat Northampton (perhaps)
Shrewsbury lose to Morecambe (hope so)

That would leave Rotherham guaranteed play off place and Aldershot, Morecambe & Chesterfield on 70 points. Bury on 68 points needing a win from their last game and one of the three on 70 points to lose. If all three drew, Bury would need to win their last game by 4 or 5 goals to go above Chesterfield. If Chesterfield won and we drew, they'd need to win by double figures. So in that scenario we would realistically only need a draw for both us & Aldershot to get a play off spot.

Hope you got all that!

As clear...as the endless scenarios....or should that be mud?

[Morecambe Player]

...for me, the dream scenario is both us and Aldershot needing just a point to both guarantee the play offs on May 8th. I suspect it might be reminiscent of Germany v Algeria in the World Cup some years ago!!

I don't think that can happen though now, unless I'm mistaken, although I hope I am. I'm sure some of you predictophiles could draw up that scenario?

Aldershot draw with Lincoln (unlikely)
Bournemouth beat Port Vale (possible)
Accrington lose to Chesterfield (not a surprise)
Bury lose to Torquay (not a surprise)
Bradford draw or beat Northampton (perhaps)
Shrewsbury lose to Morecambe (hope so)

That would leave Rotherham guaranteed play off place and Aldershot, Morecambe & Chesterfield on 70 points. Bury on 68 points needing a win from their last game and one of the three on 70 points to lose. If all three drew, Bury would need to win their last game by 4 or 5 goals to go above Chesterfield. If Chesterfield won and we drew, they'd need to win by double figures. So in that scenario we would realistically only need a draw for both us & Aldershot to get a play off spot.

Hope you got all that!

Let's bump this today and see if any of Keith's scenarios come about...

[Morecambe Player]

So a draw next week and both us AND Aldershot are in the play offs...I think...

[Keith]

just like I said!






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